By Datuk Philip Golingai
It is the Sabah political quiz no voter can win: Who do you want to be the next chief minister?
* Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor, 70, the caretaker chief minister and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) chairman.
* Datuk Shafie Apdal, 69, former Sabah chief minister and Parti Warisan president.
* Datuk Bung Moktar Radin, 66, Sabah Umno chief.
* Datuk Seri Dr Jeffrey Kitingan, 78, Sabah STAR president.
* Datuk Ruji Ubi, 55, the PKR bet for the Merotai seat.
* Datuk Salleh Said Keruak, 68, former Sabah chief minister and Sabah Umno treasurer.
* None of the above.
If you are a Sabah voter, you do not decide who will be the chief minister, as the position is appointed by the Yang di-Pertua Negeri Sabah, given to the assemblyman commanding the confidence of the majority of the 73 assemblymen.
In 27 days, Sabahans go to the polls to elect an assemblyman for each of the 73 constituencies.
Who will be the CM is super hard to predict as politics in Sabah is fragmented, fluid, and full of drama.
So far, I think it is unlikely that a single coalition or party will win the simple majority – 37 seats – required to form a government and have its leader appointed as chief minister.
For example, Hajiji’s GRS will secure no more than 30 seats; Shafie’s Warisan, fewer than 25; and Umno, about 12 seats.
Now, this is just a prediction without factoring in who the candidates are.
Most analysts and politicians will advise waiting until nomination day, Nov 15.
Who the candidate is, not the party, is more crucial to winning the seat.
Field the wrong candidate, and a party that is expected to win the seat can lose.
When the counting ends on polling day on Nov 29, the real show – the numbers game – will begin.
An old phrase that still rings true in every Sabah election is “buffalo trading”, as the assemblyman who wants to be CM must quickly cobble together a government from the different coalitions and parties.
Interestingly, the prediction is that it will be a government of all winning coalitions and parties except … I’ll reveal which later.
It is likely that Hajiji, who was appointed chief minister in 2020, will get his second term.
Arguably, he has an edge because he’s the incumbent.
His coalition of six parties, of which the backbone is PGRS, is on track to win more seats than any other coalition or party.
GRS needs its PGRS warlords to win and for its partner, Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), to deliver about 10 seats.
It is not an easy task for PBS as the Kadazan-dusun, Murut, and Rungus seats PBS will be vying for are highly competitive.
But with the backing of GRS, PBS shouldn’t run out of gas.
Inside the Warisan bubble, the party has already won. Shafie, who was chief minister from 2018 to 2020, is confident that his party can form the state government outright without forming a coalition.
And Warisan supporters are posting in chat groups that they feel the winds of change, and that they will soon be back in power.
Some already know what GLC (government- linked company) position they will get.
However, reality is different outside the Warisan bubble.
For example, in 2020’s snap polls, the party won three Kadazandusun and Murut seats.
In 2025, can it still win them when two of its warlords in Melalap and Limbahau have quit the party?
Remember, candidates in almost all seats (except for Warisan’s three state seats in the Semporna parliamentary district) are more important than the party.
So which party might not be included in the government of all winning coalitions and parties?
It is Warisan (and Perikatan Nasional). Shafie is known to have an antagonistic relationship with the two politicians who hold the keys to Menara Kinabalu (the CM’s office).
If Barisan Nasional, which Umno is heading, wins big in the Sabah polls, can Bung Moktar get other coalitions and parties to support it in forming the government?
There’s a lingering taint associated with having the likeable Bung Moktar as chief minister due to his ongoing corruption court case.
Will Umno want him to be chief minister? Will Sabahans want an “aka Duterte” as CM?
Will it be “ini kali lah” (this is the time) or “lain kali la” (next time) for Kitingan?
Based on the theory of united Kadazandusun-Murut-Rungus voters versus fragmented Muslim (Bajau, Suluk, Bugis, and Bisaya) voters, the STAR president is set to win at least 25 seats, including mixed seats.
However, with STAR breaking its unity memorandum of understanding with PBS as well as competition from other parties such as Upko, Parti KDM and PGRS, his party needs a strong wave of “solo sentiment” (ie, support for a party going out on its own) to win those seats.
But the solo sentiment is only felt strongly in specific seats.
For example, in Sook, the Barisan candidate – PBRS president and Pensiangan MP Datuk Seri Arthur Joseph Kurup – might win if the solo sentiment doesn’t reach 80%.
However, in nearby Tulid, the sentiment is strong, and STAR is likely to field a strong candidate, so a win is likely.
If Kitingan wins big in the Kadazandusun-Murut-Rungus and mixed seats, he is a potential CM candidate.
However, it is a big “if”, which might become iffy if he doesn’t strengthen his solo narrative and sell the message that he is CM material.
The talk months ago was that Ruji was the CM pick of Prime Minister and Pakatan Harapan chairman Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
On Sept 27, Anwar announced that former Education Ministry secretary-general Ruji had joined PKR.
So he is set to be Pakatan’s bet in the Merotai seat.
But to be CM, Ruji must first win the seat. It is not an easy task.
All those I named in my CM pop quiz are warlords and YBs in their respective seats. Ruji is a political newbie.
There are two factors working against Ruji: the candidate (specifically, his Warisan opponent) and the party (PKR).
Warisan’s Sarifuddin Hata is a highly likeable Merotai incumbent assemblyman. He is the type who knows everybody’s name in the constituency.
And PKR/Pakatan, which is seen as a “not local” party, is not popular in Merotai.
Salleh is the dark horse in the CM race.
Going back to the possibility of Barisan winning big, who in Sabah Umno has the political cunning and networking to cobble together a government with coalitions like Pakatan and parties like Parti KDM and STAR?
The Usukan assemblyman, who was Sabah’s chief minister from 1994 to 1996, knows how the game is played.
SSK (he’s known by his initials) is known as an intellectual (he has a PhD), a moderate, and an experienced leader.
In Sabah’s fragmented and fluid politics, the only certainty is that fierce buffalo trading will likely determine the next chief minister on the night of the election. – thestar
