By Datuk Philip Golingai
Columnist/Senior News Editor
HOW did Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) chairman Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor obtain a mandate for Sabah Chief Minister Hajiji 2.0?
I’ll quote how Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim described Hajiji’s political prowess.
“Hajiji, even though he is known to be mild-mannered, has used some ‘silat’ moves and stayed in power and even has a majority now,” said Anwar on Feb 28, 2023, referring to the Sulaman assemblyman’s deft political manoeuvring to deflect an attempt to bring him down as chief minister in a failed move called Langkah Kinabalu.
This attempted coup, orchestrated mainly by Umno and Parti Warisan, failed when Hajiji secured support from federal allies, notably Pakatan Harapan, cementing his political survival.
As a guest on Keluar Sekejap’s episode 181, Analysis of Sabah’s 17th Election, I mentioned that Hajiji secured his second term because, as Anwar described, he had “silat moves.”
I also mentioned to the KS hosts, Khairy Jamaluddin and Ong Kian Ming, that Hajiji was like a political payau (samba deer).
“Hajiji is makin menunduk, makin menanduk (the more he bows his head, the more he will gore),” I said.
Meaning: don’t underestimate Hajiji, who might be seen as Mr Nice Guy, but he is not a pushover.
The Sabah chief minister adopts a posture of humility, retreat, or submissiveness in public, but is actually secretly consolidating power and preparing a strong counter-attack.
An apparent political surrender or show of weakness shouldn’t fool his political opponents.
Hajiji looked politically “weak” when his six-party local coalition, GRS, fielded only 55 candidates, as the rest were taken by its electoral pact partner, Pakatan Harapan.
Sikit-sikit, tapi jadi (a little bit, but it works) was GRS’s strategy for the 2025 Sabah Election.
The GRS chairman went for 55 seats out of the 73 constituencies in the state assembly.
In contrast, Warisan president Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal arguably committed a strategic error by contesting all 73 seats, spreading his party’s resources and focus too thin.
Warisan secured the highest number of popular votes in the Sabah polls, garnering 288,703 (25.57%) compared to GRS’s 286,389 (25.37%).
This difference amounts to just 2,314 votes, or a mere 0.20% margin.
But do note that the 0.20% margin is also because GRS contested 23 fewer seats than Warisan.
However, when you look at the data differently, it shows a different story that the sikit-sikit, tapi jadi strategy worked.
GRS contested 55 seats and secured 29 victories, achieving an impressive 52.73% conversion rate.
In contrast, Warisan’s decision to field candidates across the entire 73-seat assembly yielded only 25 victories, a conversion rate of just 34.25%.
To make it worse, 23 Warisan candidates lost their election deposits.
Hajiji’s high efficiency strategy points to a highly targeted and effective campaign, where resources – financial, human and time – were maximally concentrated only on constituencies identified as winnable.
Shafie’s extensive reach appears to have diluted their impact in crucial marginal contests.
The ambition for state-wide coverage came at the expense of winnability, highlighting a disconnect between vote share and legislative power.
Ultimately, electoral success is determined by seat count.
GRS’s superior seat conversion efficiency allowed it to emerge as the largest bloc.
In political strategy, sometimes inda payah buat banyak, janji ngam (no need to do a lot, as long as it’s just right) is the winning formula.
Another factor is that Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), which together with Parti Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (PGRS) form the backbone of GRS, secured seven seats.
Acting PBS president Datuk Seri Dr Joachim Gunsalam made the right choice by remaining in the GRS coalition, which had a pact with Pakatan, rather than leaving, as Sabah STAR and SAPP did, and performing poorly.
Hajiji, who is PGRS president, also bought political insurance by backing independents.
This decision was key in the Sabah polls, where the combined victory of GRS (29 seats), Upko’s three gains, the five independent triumphs, and PKR’s one seat, provided Hajiji with more than the “magic 37” seats needed for a simple majority to form government. (Hajiji had a total of 38 seats.)
Hajiji’s main rival, Warisan president Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal, and party supporters were overconfident, believing they had already won the state election and that Shafie was chief minister even before polling.
Their hubris led to Warisan being ultimately tanduk (gored) by the opponent they had grossly underestimated.
“Warisan has been telling people that they are going to form the Sabah government to convince voters to vote for them and to get businessmen to fund them.”
“The problem is that Warisan believes its own propaganda. We churned the data, and told them the best-case scenario was they would win 30 seats while the realistic number that we set was from 20 to 25 seats,” a political analyst told me two days before the November 29 polling.
Many urbanites believe in that Warisan “propaganda”.
I got calls from Kuala Lumpur saying that they heard Warisan will win the Sabah Election.
I explained in the MBSB Research’s virtual roundtable session,
“Sabah Polls: Insights from the Ground” on Nov 27, two days before the polls, that the perception was technically correct, as it was felt in urban seats in Kota Kinabalu and Sandakan. I said there was a swing away from DAP in its strongholds toward Warisan.
But, I noted, it was a different story outside of the urban areas.
“Can Warisan retain seats in Kadazandusun and Murut seats like Melalap, Limbahau and Moyog, which it won in the 2020 Sabah Election? Can it retain state seats it won in its second strongest Muslim-majority parliamentary constituency of Lahad Datu?” I asked.
On the night of polling, Warisan won all the Pakatan urban seats but lost in those seats which I mentioned.
Returning to the MBSB session, I said those who saw a big Warisan win got their information from armchair political analysts.
These analysts, sitting in their air-conditioned bubbles in Kota Kinabalu, Kuala Lumpur, or overseas, needed to experience rural politics firsthand – where Santa Claus politicians presented an early Christmas for the voters.
The payau politician’s biggest asset is that he builds bridges rather than burns them.
It is a trait that Warisan should adopt. However, it is still overconfident.
Based on the results of the Sabah poll, Warisan believes it will win big in Sabah’s 25 parliamentary seats in the 16th General Elections.
In politics, it might be better to be the payau that menunduk in humility, quietly consolidating power for the decisive menanduk (goring).
